Commentator extraordinaire Bill C.'s (Far Too Early, Sure To Change A Thousand Times) 2012 F/+ Projections are up over at Football Study Hall, with Tennessee checking in at number 20, albeit behind SEC rivals Georgia (#10), Florida (#14), and South Carolina (#19).* The Vols earned their ranking courtesy of the newly signed (and 13th ranked) 2012 recruiting class and large number (20) of returning starters.
For those of us hoping that this is the year that the bamboo grows, I've taken the F/+ rankings for each team on the Vols' 2012 schedule to establish a thoroughly pseudo-scientific expectation of victory for each game: positive numbers should increasingly correlate with victory, and negative numbers should correlate with defeat.
| Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ | Diff. btwn Opp. and Vols |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/12 | NC State | -1.6% | 15.5% |
| 09/08/12 | Georgia State | Not found | Let's say this is a win |
| 09/15/12 | Florida | 17.9% | -4.0% |
| 09/22/12 | Akron | -26.3% | 40.2% |
| 09/29/12 | at Georgia | 19.6% | -5.7% |
| 10/13/12 | at Mississippi State | 5.3% | 8.6% |
| 10/20/12 | Alabama | 32.9% | -19.0% |
| 10/27/12 | at South Carolina | 14.1% | -0.2% |
| 11/03/12 | Troy | -16.6% | 30.5% |
| 11/10/12 | Missouri | 10.4% | 3.5% |
| 11/17/12 | at Vanderbilt | 10.1% | 3.8% |
| 11/24/12 | Kentucky | -7.8% | 21.7% |
Interestingly, the numbers correspond to my general feeling about the upcoming season, with the season dividing neatly into three categories: have-to-win, need-to-win, and would-like-to-win. Headlining a truly awful non-conference schedule are lightweights Akron and Troy (both waaaaaay down in the rankings) and little sister of the poor Georgia State (unranked, probably due to their transition into D-1). Tennessee should win all three of those games handily, as well as the games against Kentucky and NC State. Next up are the need-to-wins, meaning that any Tennessee head coach needs to win these games or face the pitchforks and orange mob. Vandy, Mizzou, and Mississippi State are all firmly middle-tier teams, capable of beating teams that don't play with focus and take care of the football. The Vols should be more talented than all of them. Finally, the last tier of games are the would-like-to-wins, featuring SEC East rivals Georgia and Florida, and historic no-body South Carolina; all three teams are close enough in projected F/+ that we'll get an idea whether or not the new coaching staff can coach. (Note: traditional rival Alabama is so far off-the-charts that it's not worth thinking about right now. I'd love a win, but it would be a huge upset.)
*For those who don't follow advanced football stats, F/+ is a combination of two metrics: FEI measures drive success and S&P+ uses play-by-play data to measure expected points and success rate. Final rankings for 2011 are here.
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1 recs | 32 comments
Welcome!
note that doesn’t include players we get back from injury, and I’m fairly certain last year’s F/+ would’ve been much higher with Justin Hunter all season. That said, teams like NC State who were terrible early and figured things out late are probably also done a bit of a disservice by those rankings.
Once you factor home/away into things, Georgia probably jumps up towards Alabama’s category (maybe their own second tier) and Carolina and Florida form a small group that should be even with or marginally better than us—the kind of games of which we need at least one if we ever want to harbor hopes of coming back to traditional levels.
Incipient_Senescence - February 6, 2012
Thanks!
Your point about home field is a good one; I think my own disdain for Coach Richt (ie, a less successful version of Fulmer) probably clouded my judgment. Let’s just say that he’s the coach I’d be least afraid to face in a single-game playoff.
Also, having read VolBrian’s post about the NSD party and the surreptitious confirmation of Da’Rick/Bray attitude problems, I find the numbers comforting…
CobbWebbAttack - February 6, 2012
agree completely
Georgia is a game that we should, by all rights, lose fairly handily, but I can’t chalk it up with Mr Richt at the helm
Incipient_Senescence - February 6, 2012
I missed VolBrians Post
Where can I find it?
docrok - February 7, 2012
at the top of the FanPost list
Incipient_Senescence - February 7, 2012
Nicely done.
One thing that I’m always careful of when you’re looking at things like this is to consider the expected distribution between teams. I’m not sure I’d use a straight linear comparison, but I also hate those in general.
Also, bears noting:
/wetblanket
Chris Pendley - February 6, 2012
True
I doubt that the difference in F/+ corresponds in any precise way with margin of victory, but it ought to mean something in a back-of-the-envelope-calculation sort of way. That said, knowing whether the difference between Tennessee at 13.9% and Mizzou at 10.4% means more or less than South Carolina at 14.1%? Who knows.
CobbWebbAttack - February 6, 2012
even if it's not linear, I'd imagine 3.5 percentage points mean more than .2
Tennessee/Missouri gap (3.5) vs Tennessee/Florida gap (4.0), on the other hand. . .
Incipient_Senescence - February 6, 2012
I also imagine it's going to get revised down.
Intuitively, this seems like Tennessee’s a bit overranked. The formula for returning starters seems to overrate the significance, best as I can figure. If that moves down, we’ll see UT drop closer to Mizzou (which makes sense; Florida’s an uphill battle, but we knew that)..
One other thing – and I haven’t checked the 2011 F/, so keep this in mind – is what the benefit is from the stats showing a better season than we saw on the field (in other words, still ending up in the top 50-55 range with a 5-7 year) is having on the 2012 F/.
Chris Pendley - February 6, 2012
it overranks Florida just as much as Tennessee
they have the 2nd most returning starters in the SEC (7 offense, 10 defense). But the ones they lose include their QB and both RBs. With that game in Neyland, it screams pick’em or close to it. Not that uphill. But yeah, we’ll definitely get adjusted down.
That said, the 2011 F/+ only takes into account two full-strength games. A completely healthy Justin Hunter is a huge x-factor. Most important player on our team (more so than Bray) the way I see it.
Incipient_Senescence - February 6, 2012
If we are to believe the percentages.
The only game that’s not winnable is Bama.
If we win all of our should-wins, I don’t think it’s impossible to perhaps win 1 to 2 of the Georgia, Florida, SC games, and that’s one hell of a season.
If we can pull that off, Dooley saves his ass, and we no doubt pull in a top 10 recruiting class.
TennesseeTyrants - February 6, 2012
Yep, we're going 11-1, regular season
it seems like this happens to me earlier and earlier each year
PdxVol - February 6, 2012
I know.
My optimism really cannot be contained when things finally start to look a little bit okay.
TennesseeTyrants - February 6, 2012
I'll be thrilled with 10 wins even if number 10 is a bowl win
I don’t think 9 wins in the regular season with this roster and schedule is out of the question and it really is now time for this staff and team to answer the bell or whistle.
If this team can take care of bidness we book at top 10 or higher recruiting class and set the table for a sustained run.
phil g - February 7, 2012
I don't think an 11-1 season is out of the question...
With us returning so many players off a team with a heck of a defense, and getting what I consider our two most talented players by several miles back.
It would certainly not be the baseline, which is right around 8 wins for me… but just remember how explosive the offense was with Hunter, Rogers and Bray all out there at 100%. And with neither of them making it out of September, it absolutely killed us.
Really not sure how they could realistically adjust down with us and discount the return of two guys who could easily be top 10 NFL draft picks if they remain healthy. Seriously, I’d seen BOTH of them at #1 on legitimate draft boards(Bray in 2013/Hunter in 2014) prior to their injuries last year.
Caban - February 7, 2012
Hope is the thing with the feathers
and seriously, it’ll peck your eyes out if you’re not careful.
I think the semi-realistic (but optimistic) view should give us ballpark even odds on beating Georgia and USCe, and only slightly better than even of beating Florida and Mizzou (and Miss St. and NC State won’t exactly be pushovers, either). Taken together, I think we have a better chance off knocking off Bama than we do of running that table.
_trey_ - February 7, 2012
Understandably...
and I’d actually agree that a win over Bama is significantly more likely than going 11-0 vs. the rest of the schedule. But taken as individual events, there is no single game that we should obviously lose outside of Alabama.
And I really do believe that with a healthy Bray, Hunter and Rogers we’ll have the most explosive offense in the SEC East by miles. And it increases exponentially if we actually find a productive running game.
Caban - February 7, 2012
Agreed
I’m really thinking that having a not-Da’Rick-exclusive passing game will do a lot to open up the ground game- I’d really like to see more screen passes, jet sweeps, and other attempts to get the ball in space and utilize some of the speed we’ve got. There’s definitely a ton to be excited about with this team.
_trey_ - February 7, 2012
I think having a stable of dominant receivers
may be the keystone of Chaney’s offensive philosophy. That’s probably why we are signing so many of them. Having Hunter go down brought the whole structure down last year. If CP is as good as advertised, and Hunter stays healthy, who knows where this could go…
PdxVol - February 7, 2012
Rec'd.
The sweeps looked pretty good with Neal in there. He’s waaaaayyyy under-utilized, imho.
PEEK-A-BOO - February 10, 2012
I think with the RBs we pulled in this season.......
that it will be possible. Even if it’s only just enough to keep defenses honest in our passing game. Just enough is just enough.
PEEK-A-BOO - February 10, 2012
agreed, not out of the question
I just don’t need that number of wins for me to rate next season a success.
phil g - February 7, 2012
Success
I think success for everyone is different and prior to all of the staff turnover I stated that I felt for Dooley to have a successful season in which fans would really be able to buy in and say yes he is probably the man for the job that he needed to attain 10 wins. This was bearing in mind the defense would be more seasoned and the offense should be lethal! But with all the changes on defense I could see 9 wins as a successful season however I still think Dooley needs to go 4-1 in September with the only reasonable loss being to Georgia. Though I am definitely in the boat with several other posters in Richt is very capable of coaching down his talent! I think 10-2 is not out of the question or unreasonable considering the losses other teams will have and the lack of any significant lost starters by TN, barring major injuries to a large number of players!
docrok - February 7, 2012
"F/+ is a combination of two metrics: FEI measures drive success and S&P+ uses play-by-play data to measure expected points and success rate."
Oh but of course! Thanks for clearing that up! For real though, thanks for posting… I found it interesting even though I don’t really understand it (and I have taken two terms of stats, tyvm). Take-away: we have a decent chance to beat everyone except Bammer.
PdxVol - February 6, 2012
Ha
Well, that the best I can do to describe what’s inside the black box. Like many of the Football Outsider stats (adjusted line yards, DYAR, etc.) there’s a bit of take-this-on-faith unless you want to pick apart the model they’re using… probably like staring directly into the sun. FEI is explained in more depth here:
CobbWebbAttack - February 6, 2012
I went to that link
to learn more about FEI, but I’m still drawing a blank. bu-dum-dum
PdxVol - February 7, 2012
Well, the only real problem with Football Outsiders...
…is that hey’re pretty tight with their data, and a lot of the specifics of their calculations. We all just have to take their word for it, I guess.
_trey_ - February 8, 2012
as an accidental joke that worked pretty well
but seriously, here’s the link http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
CobbWebbAttack - February 10, 2012
Welcome!
I gotta admit I’m impressed you’re already posting articles. I’ve been on here for months and I still can’t figure out how to do that. Also you put percentages in your chart, and I do like my percentages.
Ben Miller - February 7, 2012
Great first post!
Keep it up! I think these numbers pretty much support my feelings about the upcoming season.
golfballs03 - February 7, 2012
So
You’re saying there’s a chance?!?!
The Life & Opinions of Boone, Gentleman - February 7, 2012
Nice work
_trey_ - February 7, 2012
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