Tennessee at Kentucky Preview

by Will Shelton on Jan 31, 2012 10:00 AM EST in Tennessee Volunteer Basketball

Wins in Rupp Arena tend to be a once-per-decade event for Tennessee. 1977. 1979. 1999. 2006. And that's it.

Cuonzo Martin's Vols played Kentucky closer than anyone other than North Carolina and Indiana seventeen days ago in Knoxville. Tennessee led by six at halftime and by eight with fourteen minutes to play. But the Vols flatlined at the under eight, allowing Kentucky to build an eight point lead that late Vol threes cut back to the final margin of 65-62. It's those flatlines that have killed the Vols on the offensive end, negating even their best defensive effort.

In Knoxville the Vols held Kentucky to their third lowest point total of the season, forced thirteen turnovers, and held UK to 42.9% shooting, well below their 48.3% average. It continued the trend we've seen since the Memphis game: the Vols have allowed opponents to shoot just 37.8% against them in the last seven games.

Most notably, the Vols shut down Doron Lamb in the Knoxville game, an effort led by Skylar McBee. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was just 4 of 11, but got to the free throw line a dozen times and still finished with a 17-12 as the best player on the floor that day.

But the biggest difference in the last seventeen days is Jarnell Stokes. In his coming out party, Stokes had a 9-4 in just seventeen minutes. Now in the starting lineup, Size 20 gives the Vols all the power they need to matchup with Terrence Jones and Anthony Davis. Jones fouled out of the first game and played just 24 minutes. Davis did his thing with 18-8. But Tennessee responded with Jeronne Maymon's 15-10. Now that Stokes is playing regular minutes, tonight may be the first and only time we see these two tag teams go at it. And it should be a good one.

That is, if Tennessee has figured out how to stand up and be counted on the road.

We didn't have an issue with this in Starkville, which could in part be chalked up to a very lazy effort from the Bulldogs that night (which was unfortunately still good enough to win). But in Memphis, Athens, and especially in Nashville, Tennessee has been flat out bad. And nowhere brings out bad like Rupp Arena.

Some of it is maturity and confidence. If the Vols don't step on the floor with it, what happened in Nashville will happen again. And some of it is Basketball 101: you can't turn the ball over 18.5 times and shoot 25% from the arc - UT's averages in their last four road games - and expect to beat good teams on their home floor.

And of course, not only will we be playing in UT's personal hell (non-Georgia Dome level), we'll be doing so against a Kentucky team ranked first in the nation.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Recent history is on our side against number one teams, something John Calipari knows about...but unfortunately, most of these Vols can't walk with the swagger that comes with such monumental victories, and the only one who can is in the middle of the worst shooting slump of his career. Cameron Tatum is running out of games. We thought it was a home/road or even a roller coaster issue, but he followed up a 1 for 5 performance in Nashville with 0 for 9 against Auburn. We need him, and it'd be really great if he could finish his career here on a high note. But it needs to be now. He did have 16 against Kentucky the first time, for what it's worth.

Kentucky is going to do their thing. Every indication is that the Vols will do the same on the defensive end. Plain and simple, for the Vols to be in this thing, they have to take care of the basketball, and they have to knock down open shots. Will Maymon and Stokes see as many double teams with Jones and Davis in the paint? Maybe, maybe not...but either way, a draw in that post matchup would be a good night, so the Vols will still need Trae Golden, Cameron Tatum, Josh Richardson, Jordan McRae, and Skylar McBee to contribute, and some of them probably heavily.

I know we played them to the wire before, so we shouldn't be afraid. I know we can be physical, I know we can play hard, I know we can matchup with them in the post. Can we add the necessary competency from our offensive backcourt to give ourselves a chance? I don't know. If we see 18.5 turnovers and 25% from the arc, we're going to get run out of the building. But if we see improvement?

Wins in this place almost never happen for us. It will take something more, but it would be something special.

7:00 PM ET - ESPNU

0 recs | 15 comments

Comments

it's amazing to me

that we actually opened 2-1 in Rupp and then lost 20 straight.

wishes for tonight: hit your outside shots, take care of the ball. If we can do those things, our defense and our post game will keep us in it to the end

Incipient_Senescence - January 31, 2012 reply

One of my best friends is a huge Kentucky fan.

I’ve always been more into football, he’s always been more into basketball. We always had this give and take where we never beat them in the spring, but they never beat us in the fall.

I need a win tonight to balance out our friendship, or else things may become tense on my end.

Plus, I really really want to call him and sing rocky top.

TennesseeTyrants - January 31, 2012 reply

Will you sing it all night long, though?

Chris Pendley - January 31, 2012 reply

Yes. Yes I will.

Don’t worry, though, I’m not moving to California any time soon.

TennesseeTyrants - January 31, 2012 reply

Wet blanket

I don’t think we have any realistic chance of winning this game. With the way we’ve been playing D, I might give us a puncher’s chance if we had the ability to shoot the ball. But we don’t. And since we can’t shoot, the only other way we can score is by either driving to the hoop or getting the ball into our bigs. Both of those options will get us quickly introduced to Mr. Davis’ Swat-o-matic machine.

That leaves us approximately zero ways of scoring the basketball.

kidbourbon - January 31, 2012 via mobile reply

Pomeroy gives us a 5% chance of victory

So we’re in the Lloyd Christmas Zone.

Will Shelton - January 31, 2012 reply

Had you read my comment in Joel's earlier post before you wrote this?

If not, great minds think alike.

kidbourbon - January 31, 2012 via mobile reply

we can't shoot consistently

that’s different than not being able to shoot. our overall three point percentage is still among the tops in the conference, despite performances like Auburn, Vandy, and Georgia.

but the road performance will have to radically change to give us a realistic chance

Incipient_Senescence - January 31, 2012 reply

Our in-conference 3pt % is 29.1

Good enough for 9th in the conference.

As an aside, I believe I could present a compelling argument that not being able to shoot consistently is the exact same thing as not being able to shoot.

kidbourbon - January 31, 2012 via mobile reply

well that might be fair

but if that’s the definition, then not being able to shoot doesn’t mean we won’t be able to shoot tonight. But I think we’re in agreement that we’ll need a hot streak from outside to even begin to think about an upset.

Although I was thinking that good three point shooting kept us tight against UConn and Kentucky, but evidently not. We were a combined 34% in those two games.

Incipient_Senescence - January 31, 2012 reply

What about on the power play?

oops, wrong sport

Chris Pendley - January 31, 2012 reply

Oh, I got it!

We can try and play for a PK or two and be a threat from set pieces. That and defend stoutly, and we might be able to escape with a point.

Oh. Man, I can’t get this right at all.

Chris Pendley - January 31, 2012 reply

Never give up.

Never give up. Never, never, never give up.

Some guy said that once, and I’m a firm believer, both for the players and for me as a fan. So I will always have the belief going into any game that my team is going to win. My heart does at least. Sometimes my head tries to rain on the party, but I work to overcome that.

sddbaker - January 31, 2012 reply